If you really want to look at goals, even-strength goal differential is more accurate. Plus-minus is very flawed. Shots are inherently a far bigger sample size than goals, and we should acknowledge this. Philadelphia Flyers: 3 players who must improve in by Dave Stevenson. Eichel acquisition helps correct squandered Fleury trade Montreal Canadians: Is Bergevin in the hot seat?
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View all Central Sites. Louis Blues Winnipeg Jets. More Pacific News ». More FS Pacific News ». View all Pacific Sites. More FanSided News ». More News Around the Network ». View all Our Sites. Tweet Share Pin. Now let's suppose that:. Again, no real rhyme or reason to it; let's just suppose the opposing goalie happened to get lucky a handful more times than not when Player B was out there and whiffed on a handful of pucks when Player A was out there, which totally happens.
That's a pretty massive difference. About 16 goals difference. Again, keep in mind that these players are identical. But again, Player A and B did everything the exact same way in the exact same proportions.
He just got "luckier" than player B. You may be wondering if players such as those in the examples above exist, and the answer is absolutely, yes. Dustin Byfuglien's goalies posted an. These kinds of percentages are totally normal. In fact, the crazy thing is, the variance can actually be much worse than this.
We only discussed three factors and I didn't even pick percentages at the extreme ends of the spectrum.
When the Wild's Erik Haula was on the ice at 5-on-5 in his 44 games this season, his goalies saved The same figure for Zenon Konopka , Haula's teammate? That's a spread of 7. And it's not just the Wild. And that's just the beginning. Matters only get cloudier when adding in other factors. For example, an excellent power play player like Ovechkin or Byfgulien gets no credit for offense created on the PP.
Byfuglien, in case you're curious, accumulated a -4 on the power play this season. And we haven't even begun to talk about things like quality of competition, quality of teammates, zone starts, face-off wins, or about a hundred other factors outside of an individual player's control.
Granted, Konopka is a pretty terrible hockey player, but I doubt it. Has Ryan Jones even , who has only scored six points all season, been 33 goals better than Nail Yakupov ? I sincerely doubt it. Connor McDavid gets 3 goals on the power play giving him a hat trick for the night. However, he was also on the ice for 2 goals against. What is his plus minus? Connor McDavid gets 2 goals at even strength and 1 goal on the power play.
He is on the ice for an empty net goal at the end of the game. Connor McDavid gets 2 assists at even strength. He is on the ice for 4 goals against — 2 even strength, one shorthanded on the penalty kill, and an empty net goal.
Minus: -3 the two goals at even strength and the empty net goal count as minuses, while the shorthanded goal does not. This stat has had a little bit of controversy around it because of all the variables around it that are out of a players control of whether he gets a plus or minus. All of these points are valid, and it does show some weakness in the stat. However, I am of the belief that so many of these easy pluses and unfortunate minuses will work themselves out in the end.
You are going to get some that go for you and some will go against, but at the end of the day it is a good indication of the contribution you are providing on the ice. Over the course of the season it will help to see if you are helping to push your team forward.
When you look at the history of players who have great plus minus stats they are great players. Players such as Bobby Orr and Nik Lidstrom and Selke award winners for best defensive forward are all over this stat.
To me that speaks to the validity of it. Actually, I think that players who have great plus minus stats are indications of players that really help to move the needle forward for their team winning.
Players who score a lot of points and have lousy plus minus are often not that great of players. Of course, great players play on poor teams. But, on the other hand, there is more to hockey than scoring goals.
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